Track II diplomacy: Asean’s quiet force multiplier in a contest of powers

Informal defence dialogues can help Asean bridge the gap between strategic ideas and official action, preserving regional autonomy amid intensifying great power rivalry, writes Colonel Thanita Wongjinda of the Royal Thai Armed Forces.

Track II diplomacy: Asean’s quiet force multiplier in a contest of powers

In a world increasingly shaped by superpower rivalries and military posturing, Southeast Asia faces a delicate balancing act.

While formal intergovernmental meetings, known as Track I diplomacy, can stall under the weight of diplomatic protocol and strict consensus rules, an informal network works quietly behind the scenes. This is the Track II Network of Asean Defence and Security Institutions (NADI).

Initiated in 2007 by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, NADI originally comprised 13 core defence think tanks and security institutes across the 10 original Asean member states (AMS). It recently welcomed a new member from Timor-Leste, bringing its membership to 14 institutions across 11 AMS. Operating as an unclassified academic sanctuary, NADI enables scholars, strategists and military officers to think freely, speak candidly and build regional peace before official crises erupt.

Why unofficial dialogues matter

Formal defence assemblies such as the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) are essential for regional security, but they are bound by the tenets of the Asean Way, particularly non-interference and consensus. When geopolitical tensions between the United States and China escalate, official diplomats can find themselves facing institutional gridlock.

NADI helps address this dilemma by providing a confidential space where participants interact in their personal capacities. Free from official state mandates, researchers can float bold ideas, debate sensitive cross-border risks without exposing governments to political fallout, and lay the groundwork for future intergovernmental agreements.

In theory, NADI serves three functions in regional governance: it builds mutual confidence through a community of trusted experts; shapes strategic narratives that champion an inclusive security order; and enables Asean nations to hedge against geopolitical uncertainty while preserving their strategic autonomy without taking sides.

NADI’s evolution from 2007 to 2026

NADI’s 19-year journey reveals an evolution across three developmental phases. From 2007 to 2011, it built mutual confidence through practical initiatives focused on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), peacekeeping operations (PKO) and maritime security awareness.

As transboundary threats multiplied, NADI expanded its agenda between 2012 and 2018 to develop frameworks for non-traditional security (NTS). It advanced regional proposals on cybersecurity protocols, airport screening reforms and military medicine collaboration.

Since 2019, NADI has increasingly focused on technology, geopolitics and supply chains. In its current phase, the network addresses emerging security challenges, from military artificial intelligence (AI) ethics and undersea data cable protection to defence supply chain resilience under the Asean Defence Industry Collaboration (ADIC).

From academic debate to practical action

NADI’s value lies in translating academic discussion into practical security mechanisms that strengthen regional cooperation. Before formal ministerial bodies take up complex issues, NADI can help put emerging concerns on the agenda. It initiated defence cyber workshops in 2013, laying the groundwork for the ADMM Cybersecurity and Information Centre of Excellence (ACICE). Its work on military AI also helped introduce human-in-the-loop safety principles into official ministerial statements.

Beyond shaping the agenda, the network promotes practical confidence-building measures (CBMs). Early NADI workshop proposals supported the establishment of the Asean Center of Military Medicine (ACMM), which proved valuable during the COVID-19 pandemic. NADI also advanced maritime and aviation safety protocols, including the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and the Guidelines for Air Military Encounters (GAME), aimed at reducing the risk of military miscalculation in contested waters.

NADI also helps reinforce Asean Centrality by placing external minilateral initiatives in a broader regional context. As groupings such as AUKUS, the Quad and SQUAD proliferate, NADI positions them as supplementary strategic arrangements within the inclusive framework of the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).

By revitalising the ADIC, NADI can also help map dual-use supply chains and critical raw materials, enabling member states to reduce external technological dependencies and develop regional sustainment hubs.

Weathering geopolitical storms and closing the policy gap

Operating amid intense superpower rivalry brings significant challenges. NADI’s landmark 15-year assessment reported a policy effectiveness rating of 78 per cent between 2013 and 2021. While indicating substantial impact, the assessment also highlighted a persistent gap between policy and practice, partly because formal channels for transmitting Track II recommendations to Track I decision-makers remain weak.

Competing strategic visions, including America’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), also threaten to dilute NADI’s independent agenda. Without reform, its meetings risk becoming routine talking shops that avoid difficult issues.

Yet the network’s informal, decentralised model remains its principal strategic asset, preserving the flexibility needed to develop new approaches to regional security.

A roadmap for stronger regional security

To bridge the gap between informal dialogue and official policy, and keep Asean at the forefront of regional security, NADI needs a modernised strategic roadmap.

The first priority is to establish structured, two-way channels between the NADI chair and senior defence officials at the Asean Defence Senior Officials’ Meeting (ADSOM). Mandatory feedback mechanisms should track recommendations and establish whether Track II insights have informed Track I decisions.

NADI should also deploy agile research task forces to address rapid technological changes and emerging threats, including military AI ethics, cyber defence and grey-zone activities targeting undersea data cables. A comprehensive 20-year joint research evaluation project covering 2007 to 2027 could support the development of a landmark 20-year regional security outlook.

Revitalising the ADIC to map dual-use supply chains and critical raw materials would further strengthen defence industrial resilience across member states. A framework of tiered complementarity could also help align external minilateral groupings and subregional security arrangements with the inclusive principles of the AOIP.

Ultimately, in an era of intensifying global rivalry, strengthening informal Track II defence diplomacy is not merely an academic exercise. It is a strategic necessity for safeguarding regional peace, preserving strategic autonomy and sustaining Asean Centrality.

Senior Colonel Thanita Wongjinda is an officer in the Royal Thai Armed Forces and is currently attending the National Resilience Course at PUSPAHANAS.