The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), founded in 1967 and now comprising 10 permanent member states, has played a crucial role in shaping and influencing the regional order in Southeast Asia.
Established during the Cold War, Asean was created to promote stability, economic growth, and conflict resolution among its member states. Its guiding principles, such as non-interference, decision-making by consensus, and mutual respect, are enshrined in key documents like the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and the Asean Charter. These principles have enabled Asean to foster cooperation, build trust, and maintain regional stability despite challenges like territorial disputes and rivalries among major powers, particularly between the United States and China.
The evolving geopolitics and shift in the regional order present significant challenges to Asean. One of the primary challenges is the growing rivalry among major powers, particularly between the United States and China. This escalating competition poses a major security dilemma for Asean, possibly its most serious one in the coming decade. If not managed properly, the great power rivalry could undermine regional stability and security, potentially fracturing the unity among Asean member countries, with some members potentially aligning with either the US or China.
The diverse economic growth among Asean member countries, predominantly consisting of developing nations, necessitates substantial economic assistance, investment, and infrastructure development from major powers. This situation could compel Asean members to pursue differing objectives, prioritising their national interests.
The Belt and Road Initiative, introduced by Beijing, and the Indo-Pacific concept, promoted by Washington, are two significant forces in Southeast Asia that Asean will have to navigate. Asean must unite to address this challenge by strengthening its mechanisms and institutions, and establishing balanced cooperation with major powers.
The concept of a hedging strategy is a plausible option, in which Southeast Asia enhances its military cooperation with the US as a form of balancing power against China, while simultaneously deepening economic and diplomatic relations with China. This strategy helps prevent either the US or China from exerting excessive influence over Asean, thereby maintaining a balanced approach to external relations and preserving regional stability.
Maintaining Asean Centrality is a significant challenge for the organisation. Asean must ensure that external powers do not undermine its leadership position, and that Asean-led frameworks and processes remain the primary platforms for regional collaboration and communication. This requires Asean to consistently engage with major powers while upholding its principles and norms.
By doing so, Asean can ensure it remains the central platform for addressing regional issues and fostering cooperation among its member states and external partners. By leading mechanisms for dialogue, interaction, trust-building, and mutual understanding on regional security issues, Asean can mitigate competition and encourage restraint in regional geopolitics.
The concept of Asean Centrality can create a sense of “comfort” among great powers through its inclusive, open, and non-constraining approach to regionalism, known as the ‘Asean Way’. This centrality enables Asean to manage regional dynamics effectively, preventing any single external power from dominating the regional agenda. By preserving its central role, Asean can continue to facilitate balanced and inclusive dialogue, promoting stability and cooperation in the region.
Some experts view Asean as a ‘Talk Shop’, implying that it lacks the ability to resolve conflicts in Southeast Asia. The ongoing conflict in Myanmar since 2021, following the military takeover, has resulted in an increasing number of civilian casualties due to ineffective conflict resolution.
Asean, while adhering to its principle of non-interference, has engaged in dialogue with Myanmar’s military government, yet violence against civilians persists. At the same time, Asean’s principles also include the protection of human rights. This creates a dilemma for Asean in deciding whether to prioritise non-interference or support upholding of human rights in the Myanmar conflict.
Additionally, the issue of the South China Sea remains unresolved. Despite the creation of the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) in 2002 and ongoing efforts to develop a Code of Conduct (COC), these frameworks have yet to serve as effective guidelines for both parties involved. These two issues are among the most pressing challenges that Asean must address with greater urgency.
We cannot deny that since its establishment, Asean has been characterised by the absence of open conflict among its member states. This does not mean that conflicts do not exist; rather, Asean has been effective in managing and resolving disputes through peaceful means.
For instance, the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand in 2008 over the status of the Preah Vihear Temple was resolved by adhering to the principles of “Musyawarah” (consultation) and “Muafakat” (consensus), which are fundamental to Asean member states. This success has bolstered Asean’s confidence in addressing the evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia.
It is widely recognised that Southeast Asia is one of the more stable regions globally, and Asean has played a crucial role in ensuring security and geopolitical stability in the area. Through mechanisms such as the Asean Regional Forum (ARF), the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM), and ADMM-Plus, Asean promotes regional peace and stability by fostering dialogue and cooperation in defence and security.
These mechanisms include all Asean member countries and key partners such as the United States, China, India, Japan, and the European Union. The involvement of major powers underscores Asean’s success in maintaining regional stability. These mechanisms also promote capacity-building measures (CBM), reduce mutual suspicion and misunderstandings among participants, thereby enhancing peace and security in the region.
Asean’s ability to continue playing a pivotal role in promoting regional stability, security, and prosperity in Southeast Asia hinges on strong regional cooperation among its members and the support of the Asean people.
More importantly, it depends on how effectively Asean can maintain its centrality through the institutions and mechanisms it has established. If Asean fails to uphold this centrality, it risks losing its position as a leading regional organisation in Southeast Asia.
Fredy Sianturi is an international course participant from Indonesia, attending the National Resilience Course at the National Centre for Defence Studies, Putrajaya.
The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of Twentytwo13.
