The battle lines in the 15th General Election will be blurred, given the fragmented political scene and is likely to produce baffling results for the first time in the country’s 65-year history.
The clear fight between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 14th General Election is a thing of the past, given the sheer number of parties set to contest this time around. Chances are, not a single party will have the majority to form the next government.
The Election Commission (EC) today set Nov 5 for nomination and Nov 19 as polling day. According to the EC, the 15th General Election is estimated to cost RM1.01billion.
Political analyst Associate Professor Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk said the outcome of GE15 is going to be “interesting”.
“There are just so many new players this time around. Besides BN and PH, you have GTA (Gerakan Tanah Air) contesting, using Pejuang’s logo. And then you have Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Warisan, who are new players, although Warisan was previously with Pakatan Harapan,” said Azeem.
“In East Malaysia, you have GRS (Gabungan Rakyat Sabah) and GPS (Gabungan Parti Sarawak). The political scene is very fragmented and the outcome will be baffling, with not a single party having the majority to form the next government.”
On Tuesday, caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob said BN is aiming to win at least 80 of the 222 parliamentary seats.
Ismail Sabri had also said that the decision on whether BN would “merge” with other parties if it was unable to secure a simple majority to form the new government, will only be made after the general election.
He was quoted saying: “Let’s see the results first and decide later. We’ll cross the bridge when we get there.”
Azeem, who is the director of Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Centre for Policy Research and International Studies, said people were quite sceptical, given what had happened after 2018.
“The country was under BN for 60 years and GE14 was the ‘mother of all elections’, in which BN lost. But the people are also not impressed with the way PH governed, given the infighting between (Tun Dr) Mahathir (Mohamad) and (Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim).
“There is also no viable alternative to influence the younger generation to go out and vote,” he said. Azeem added that if the people decide not to vote, it could very well work in BN’s favour.
“We have seen how a low voter turnout in Melaka (65.85 per cent) and Johor (54.92 per cent) had worked in BN’s favour,” he said, in reference to the state elections held in 2021 and earlier this year, respectively.
Azeem also pointed out that PH’s chances “are not as high compared to 2018” as they do not have much to offer.
“I don’t see any new ideas coming from PH. People are also saying PH ministers were not as ‘clean’ as they claimed to be.
He highlighted that Muda’s Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and DAP’s Lim Guan Eng, are facing corruption charges.
Lim had allegedly used his position as Penang chief minister to receive RM3.3 million in bribes to help Consortium Zenith BUCG Sdn Bhd to obtain the undersea tunnel project. The case is on-going.
Syed Saddiq faces four charges of criminal breach of trust (CBT), misappropriation of funds, and money laundering of over RM1 million.
“They (PH) have made a few blunders and people will make their assessments based on their 22 months in Putrajaya.”
Azeem also noted that the elephant in the room (Datuk Seri Najib Razak) is gone. And unlike 2018, there is nothing uniting PH right now.
“They cannot be telling people they want to abolish tolls or PTPTN (National Higher Education Fund) loans. We all know that this cannot be done.”
On the chances of third forces – including Gerak Independent’s candidates such as Siti Zabedah Kassim and Mohamed Tawfik Ismail making a difference – Azeem said there will be “no impact whatsoever”.
“The battleground will not be in the cities, but in rural areas. Siti may be popular in urban centres, but the battle for power lies in the Malay heartlands.
“If you cannot win in the Malay heartlands, you will not be able to win the general election. It’s the same with Sabah and Sarawak. You must win the support of the indigenous people.”
With only Pahang, Perak and Perlis dissolving the state assemblies, the election will be a lot more straightforward.
“But judging from what we are seeing so far, I don’t see any political party being able to claim that they are confident of winning GE15.”