Malaysia’s 15th General Election will be held against a backdrop of nearly two years of unprecedented movement control orders (MCO), and two consecutive national budgets that exceeded RM300 billion.
It is a well-known fact that the implementation of lockdowns globally caused numerous economic hardships, and its negative externalities are still being felt in various sectors of the economy.
At its height, the implementation of MCO 1.0 (March-May 2020) in Malaysia affected non-essential SMEs (small-to-medium enterprises) severely, and Malaysia reported a trade deficit of RM3.5 billion after 169 months of trade surplus.
The tourism sector, for example, suffered losses of RM45 million in tourist revenue. All in all, the economic losses sustained across all economic sectors during MCO 1.0 was estimated at RM2.4 billion per day.
MCO 2.0 (January-February 2021) and MCO 3.0 (May-July 2021) had similarly caused the economy to spiral downwards, with the aviation and tourism sectors taking the hardest hit.
The government tried to cushion the impact of the MCO by dishing out subsidies and incentives to both employers and employees, with the hope of controlling unemployment, and ensuring that the social wellbeing of the citizens was relatively stable.
Specifically, the government responded to the economic impact of the pandemic with two rounds of the Prihatin Rakyat Economic Stimulus Package in February and March 2020, and the Penjana Short-term Economic Recovery Plan.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rate was at 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020. That the MCO had inevitably compounded unemployment and income difficulties for Malaysian workers, in particular young workers, is evident.
While the unemployment rate declined from 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 4.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, the surge in demand for consumer products once the MCO was lifted, coupled with the disruption in the supply chain due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, had caused inflation to rise globally.
What this means for Malaysian workers who are already suffering from declining incomes due to the pandemic is the further decline in purchasing power due to higher inflation.
Put in another way, workers bore the brunt of the 2020 recession caused by a shocking and unprecedented economic shutdown.
The most critical point to note in light of the upcoming GE15 is the fact that youth unemployment reached 12.5 per cent in 2020, up from 10.5 per cent in 2019 and 10.7-10.9 per cent in 2015-2018.
This figure, and other data shed important light on the tribulations of Malaysia’s youth. Employment declined most markedly for young workers and disproportionately affected those in lower-income situations.
Evidence points to larger contractions of youth employment in middle- and low-skilled occupations. How will the disgruntled youths vote in GE15?
Given the surge in the number of voters in GE15 (figure 1), and assuming that voter turnout among the youth is high, the outcome of GE15 is by no means a straightforward affair.
Bearing in mind that the economic conditions are not rosy for most Malaysian households, especially for those in the B40 and M40 categories, conventional wisdom points to the fact that the incumbent party will suffer heavy losses, or they might be voted out of power altogether.
Can we take the cue from conventional wisdom, or are there other forces at play in determining the outcome of GE15? First and foremost, we need to be cognisant of the fact that the study of voting behaviour is not an exact science.
Having said that, it is worthwhile to note that politics has always been as much about identity and community, as it is about the economy.
Self-interest defined purely in economic terms is an idea that will reduce political parties to little more than the Department of Statistics, endlessly reporting and crunching data in order to make sense of which way the economy is heading.
Politics is essentially about the fundamental stuff of life: who we are, how we organise our society, and what it means to be a Malaysian at this moment in history. In the absence of reliable polling, we do not have at our disposal constant information on public opinion, on where it is and where it seems to be going, especially that of the young voters.
The inclusion of young voters in the upcoming GE points to the fact that should political parties focus solely on the partisans, then they’ll probably be in for a surprise. The political mind of the partisan voter is quite easy to decipher.
Being political junkies, partisans will always find a way to rationalise their support for their own political party, even if their reasoning leads to false conclusions.
In the run-up to GE15, Malaysian political parties should worry about how to influence more than five million new voters (most of them young voters) whose minds can’t process information from a partisan point of view.
The implications for political parties should be quite clear. The political terrain is shifting. The only question is, which party or coalition of parties, will benefit from the shift?
In the run-up to GE15, Twentytwo13 has partnered with Centre for Policy Research and International Studies (CenPRIS), Universiti Sains Malaysia, to offer readers research-based analysis and insights.
Established in 1974, CenPRIS is Malaysia’s oldest social science research centre. It serves as a resource centre for information and analysis of critical issues of common concern, bringing people together to exchange views, build expertise, and develop policy options.