Twentytwo13

Hung Parliament anticipated as ‘unique’ GE15 likely next year, says former ERC member

A former Electoral Reform Committee permanent member strongly believes that the outcome of the 15th General Election in Malaysia will result in a hung Parliament.

G. Manimaran, co-author of the book ‘Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia: Tanding, Pilih, Menang, Tadbir’, is also of the opinion that Malaysians will only head to the polls next year, despite recent calls by certain quarters to speed up the elections.

“We should look at the 2013 general election, following Barisan Nasional’s (BN) performance then,” said Manimaran.

“Today, the situation is more apparent, given the fact that there are too many coalitions … the small coalitions will turn out to be the kingmakers.”

In the 2008 polls, BN lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament – winning 140 out of the 222 Parliamentary seats. The downward trend continued in 2013, as BN only managed to win 133 Parliamentary seats. In 2018, BN was booted out of Putrajaya for the very first time.

“It will be difficult for BN to have a majority. In the past, it was a big coalition. Today, BN is just made up of four parties.”

Pre-2018, BN comprised 13 political parties. The four parties that remain in the coalition are Umno, MCA, MIC, and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah.

“There will be a minimum of three-, if not, four-cornered fights this time around, mainly among representatives from BN, Perikatan Nasional, Gerakan Tanah Air, and Pakatan Harapan. We must also factor in the individual parties (eg. Parti Bangsa Malaysia) and independent candidates,” said Manimaran.

“The votes will be split, especially among the Malays, where the votes will split for four (parties). There won’t be a clear majority and some of them will have to come together to form a government.”

Manimaran said while DAP will never be a part of the BN coalition, the party could end up “working together” with Umno after the elections.

“This will be similar to a ‘coalition plus’. DAP won’t be a part of the coalition but will be there to support policy matters and to ensure there is a common goal.”

DAP’s Anthony Loke did not rule out the need for compromise if no party had a clear majority in GE15 as he was recently quoted as saying “anything was possible in politics”, and that he “would not rule out anything”.

“Who is going to win more seats? That is the question. If Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) can discuss and come together, then we will see a direct BN vs PN+PH fight.”

Manimaran listed down the uniqueness of the upcoming elections. They include:

  •  Malaysians as young as 18 years old will be eligible to vote.
  • The automatic voter registration, implemented late last year, will see the electorate increase by almost 40 per cent.
  • The introduction of anti-party hopping laws.
  • First election since 2018 where three different governments ruled.
  • The election budget may reach RM1 billion, compared to the RM1 million spent on the 1959 general election.
  • Four state elections (Melaka, Johor, Sabah, and Sarawak) may not be a part of GE15.

Sabah held its elections in 2020, while Sarawak went to the polls in 2021. BN won the Melaka (2021) and Johor (2022) elections that saw a low voter turnout.

Manimaran said the jailing of former prime minister and ex-Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak could be exploited by not only Umno’s enemies, but also the party itself.

Over 3,000 Umno divisional leaders and Najib’s family members attended a special gathering at the party’s headquarters in Menara Dato’ Onn in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday. Najib is serving a 12-year sentence in Kajang Prison following the Federal Court’s decision on Aug 23 to uphold his corruption conviction involving RM42 million of SRC International Bhd’s funds. He will also have to pay a RM210 million fine.

The special gathering also saw Umno leaders calling for a GE to take place soon. Umno is in an unprecedented situation, as its president, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, does not hold any position in Putrajaya, while his vice-president, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, is the prime minister. In the past, Umno presidents have always been the prime minister.

“Najib’s case can be exploited. Those against Umno will use it to their advantage.

“ But just look at what happened last Saturday. Umno’s special gathering was done to win the sympathy of voters. Some believed it worked, others said the gathering backfired. I don’t think it will work.”

Manimaran added it was unlikely that Ismail Sabri will call for an election this year.

“He pushed the tabling of Budget 2023 early (from Oct 23 to Oct 7) to ensure that the allocations can be given out sooner. If it was done later in October, that would mean getting the budget approved later in the year, and the distribution of funds will only take place in the later part of the first quarter of next year.

“By speeding things up, the funds can be out, perhaps in the first few weeks of the year. This will enable Ismail Sabri to contain the sentiments of Umno members and ensure that initiatives for the people can be introduced earlier.

“It’s basically his strategy to keep the political turmoil at bay,” Manimaran added.