Malaysia, as the 2025 chair of Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), is facing significant challenges in reviving the stalled peace process in southern Thailand, amid rising tensions and political uncertainty in Bangkok.
Observers point to instability within Thailand’s current 11-member coalition government as a major obstacle.
The Thai government is led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the country’s youngest prime minister. The 37-year-old, daughter of ex-prime minister and billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, was appointed as prime minister in August 2024 after her father’s Pheu Thai Party formed a government with support from 10 other parties, including military-aligned factions. This followed the Constitutional Court’s dissolution of the election-winning Move Forward Party over its campaign to amend the royal insult law.
“The current government is unstable, comprising many parties with differing views, making it difficult for them to reach consensus on the Deep South conflict. Some feel previous peace talks did not benefit the government, while others see the process as biased. Without strong political will, the peace talk cannot resume,” Abu Hafez Al-Hakim, the spokesperson for the insurgent umbrella group Mara Patani, told Twentytwo13.
Thailand’s Deep South region refers to Pattani, Narathiwat, and Yala provinces, and parts of Songkhla province. The region has seen 23,140 violent incidents since the insurgency reignited in 2004, resulting in 7,723 deaths and 14,597 injuries, according to Deep South Watch, a local think-tank.
Independent researcher Shintaro Haro also expressed a similar view, highlighting the continued influence of the military in Thai politics.
“Military-backed parties still wield significant power in government. As Asean chair, Malaysia must continue urging Thailand to return to the negotiating table,” said Shintaro, who has been monitoring the southern Thailand conflict for over a decade.
Efforts so far
The last meeting between Thai government representatives and the insurgent group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) took place in June 2024 to discuss a peace framework. Since then, progress has stalled.
In July 2024, Malaysia appointed the former director-general of the National Security Council Datuk Mohd Rabin Basir as the new peace process facilitator, replacing former military chief Tan Sri Zulkifli Zainal Abidin after just 18 months in service.
Though no official explanation was given, sources said the government preferred a civilian figure to lead the effort.
Demonstrating further commitment, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim named Thaksin as one of his advisors prior to assuming the Asean chairmanship in January, with a focus on the Myanmar crisis and southern Thailand peace efforts.
Over the last five months, Anwar has held at least two meetings with Paetongtarn and three with Thaksin. The most recent was in Bangkok last month. Despite these efforts, there has been no breakthrough.
“The Thai government must show more sincerity in resolving the conflict. Malaysia has been active in engaging all stakeholders, but progress is impossible without Thai participation,” said a source familiar with the issue to Twentytwo13.
While BRN has expressed its readiness to resume dialogue, the Thai government has yet to appoint a new chief negotiator after Chatchai Bangchuad’s term ended.
Further complicating matters, observers see Thailand’s demands in resuming talks as ‘unrealistic’ and ‘potentially counterproductive’.
In March, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told the press that peace talks would only resume if insurgents halted attacks and that they would only talk to BRN’s “legitimate leadership” with operational control.
Abu Hafez called these demands absurd. He stated that Anas Abdulrahman is BRN’s designated peace talk leader and acts as an extension of the group’s central leadership.
“The broader leadership structure will likely become more apparent once there’s consensus on a peace plan, not before,” he added.
Rising violence and public concerns
There has been an uptick in violence in the Deep South. Thai media have reported at least six attacks since April, several involving civilian casualties.
Recent incidents suggest a concerning trend where the public has increasingly become targets. While no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, fingers are being pointed at BRN.
Meanwhile, Thaksin’s appointment has sparked controversy, particularly among those who are still deeply affected by the 2004 Tak Bai massacre, when 85 protestors died, many from suffocation after being bound and stacked up like logs in the backs of trucks while being transported to a military facility.
“Families affected by the Tak Bai massacre remember Thaksin’s role vividly. The incident occurred while he was the prime minister. While he didn’t pull the trigger, he was responsible for the government’s actions,” said Shintaro.
How can Thaksin assist in the peace process when he is not even welcome?
Abu Hafez believes Thaksin’s appointment could be a step forward.
“Yes, he was the PM back then (2004), but during his self-exile in 2013, he was instrumental through his sister, former PM Yingluck Shinawatra, in initiating the peace talk between the Thai government and insurgents.
“I believe Anwar hopes that despite Thaksin’s controversial past, he can use his influence to persuade the government to resume talks and eventually bring lasting peace to the region,” he told Twentytwo13.
Can Malaysia succeed?
Kasturi Mahkota, one of the leaders of Patani United Liberation Organisation, in a Facebook live session over the weekend suggested Malaysia’s role be elevated from facilitator to mediator.
“With the change, Malaysia would have more leverage in persuading the Thai government to return to the negotiations,” he said.
He also called for intervention from Thailand’s monarchy.
“The King has immense influence and His Majesty’s pronouncements carry significant weight,” he added.
Meanwhile, Abu Hafez said success hinges on the Thai government’s ability to unify its coalition and commit to peace efforts.
“I remain hopeful because it is the only path to de-escalation. Statistics show that violence decreases when talks take place,” he said.
Until then, Malaysia faces the uphill task of persuading Thailand to re-engage.
