A general election in Malaysia is unlikely to be called until Budget 2023 is tabled in Parliament.
Associate Professor Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk said the government may even try to stay in power until the middle of next year as its term only ends in July 2023.
“I do not think (Datuk Seri) Ismail Sabri (Yaakob) will dissolve Parliament before the budget is tabled. It is going to be an election budget to dish out the goodies, including something for civil servants,” said Azeem, director of Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Centre for Policy Research and International Studies
“If that is not on the table, I do not think Umno or even Barisan Nasional (BN) will be able to win big.”
Sungai Besar Umno chief Datuk Seri Jamal Md Yunos was quoted as saying Umno division leaders nationwide were calling for the 15th General Election to be held as soon as possible.
Jamal said the message was delivered during an urgent meeting convened by party president, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi at the Umno headquarters in Menara Dato’ Onn, Kuala Lumpur yesterday morning.
Last night, it was reported that Umno leaders met Ismail Sabri at Seri Perdana. Ismail Sabri is Umno vice-president.
Azeem stressed speculation that Umno would be “the big winner” if a general election is called soon, does not hold water.
“If Parliament is dissolved, the political landscape will remain the same,” he said.
“No single party can form a government on its own. It will be a mixed government, made up of rivals, with maybe even Umno and DAP in the coalition.”
Azeem said Malaysia is entering “a new era” as far as elections are concerned.
“While the results of the recent by-elections in Melaka and Johor are being used by some to drum the need to dissolve Parliament, data shows there has not been an increase in the number of votes garnered.”
In March, Umno and its BN coalition won 40 out of the 56 seats contested in the Johor by-election. Last November, BN won 21 of the 28 seats in the Melaka polls.
“The dynamics of a general election is different from a by-election. People return to their home state during the general election. Younger voters will also want to have their say.”
Azeem said Umno’s popularity reached its plateau and cannot rise any further.
“Umno must realise that it is only in power today because of the Sheraton Move,” said Azeem, in reference to the move by several lawmakers that resulted in the collapse of Pakatan Harapan in 2020.
“Umno was once a dominant force. But its dominance in Malaysian politics has been eroding since 2008. The popular vote for Umno is on the decline.”
He added it would be difficult for Umno to make a comeback given the political climate unless it comes to an understanding with PAS.
“My reading is PAS will choose to remain in Perikatan Nasional (PN). If PAS decides to abandon PN and go with Umno, then Umno will be able to win the general election with 100 or 105 seats.
“It still needs 112 seats to control the government. That will probably come from Sabah and Sarawak,” Azeem said.
An Umno insider, had in June, told Twentytwo13 that there is an ‘Umno party’ v ‘Umno Cabinet’ narrative tussle over when general elections should be held. He added: “It will turn ugly, and when you peel away all the narratives, you will see that Umno is struggling in so many ways, from leadership to resources.”
