Umno has a long way to go and a lot to do to recapture the confidence of Malay voters in Malaysia.
While some, including those within the party, have heralded Umno’s recent win in the Nenggiri by-election in Kelantan as a positive development, a political analyst said it was still “premature”.
Associate Professor Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk said the true barometer of the people’s acceptance of Umno would only be seen in the next general election.
“It is a bit premature to say Umno has made a comeback solely based on the results of the Nenggiri by-election,” said Azeem, who is Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Centre for Policy Research director.
“If you look at history, the Nenggiri seat has always been with Umno. The high number of Orang Asli voters there have traditionally voted for Barisan Nasional.”
The Nenggiri seat had been a Barisan Nasional stronghold, up until the Kelantan state election last year.
Azeem said Umno’s win in Nenggiri could also be attributed to the influence of former Gua Musang Member of Parliament, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.
Tengku Razaleigh served as Gua Musang MP for 12 terms before he was defeated by Perikatan Nasional’s Mohd Azizi Abu Naim in the 15th General Election (GE15).
Nenggiri falls under the Gua Musang constituency.
Azeem said Umno’s general assembly, which begins today and continues until Saturday, should serve as a platform to chart the party’s direction.
Once Malaysia’s dominant political party and the lynchpin of the former ruling coalition Barisan Nasional, Umno only won 26 seats in GE15.
As a whole, Barisan Nasional won 30 parliamentary seats, which was the coalition’s worst-ever performance, to date.
Umno and Barisan Nasional, however, managed to still be a part of the government by agreeing to join the unity government led by Pakatan Harapan.
Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi recently admitted that the party had yet to recapture Malay support after joining the unity government.
“Umno needs to look at its long-term plans. It still has a few more hurdles to get through, including winning at least 30-40 per cent of the seats it lost in GE15,” said Azeem.
The only way to tell if Umno had truly regained Malay support, Azeem said, was to see how it performed in GE16.
It would, however, not be easy for Umno to regain support from the people.
“Umno has an image problem, and that has been with them for many years,” said Azeem.
“It was a national party all this while, as it had the support of the Malays in most states in the peninsula. But this trend changed with voting patterns in GE15 swaying towards (the Islamic party) Pas, especially in the northern states.”
He said Umno’s comeback rests on many other factors, including how the national economy performs in the next three years.
“Some say the ‘Green Wave’ (referring to Pas’ rising dominance in the Malaysian political landscape) has subsided.
“Does this mean Umno will make a comeback? It remains fluid. One day in politics is such a long time,” Azeem said.
