The turn of events in Malaysia at this juncture mirrors that of February 2020.
The difference? Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad caught many off guard when he tendered his resignation following “the Sheraton Move” – a deft piece of political gamesmanship that involved Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Co.
The talk in town today was that Muhyiddin is set to tender his resignation to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong tomorrow. This political saga, however, will not end just like that. It is going to be another draggy affair.
What’s next?
After Dr Mahathir submitted his resignation to the King on Feb 24, 2020, Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah, met MPs on Feb 25-26 to assess their support.
On Feb 29, the various political parties were told to submit their choice for prime minister.
Through that process, it was found that Muhyiddin had garnered the majority of support from MPs and was appointed as the nation’s eighth prime minister on March 1, 2020.
The same could happen tomorrow. But the process could be speeded up as it was unlikely for Muhyiddin to even stick around as the “interim” prime minister, given the strained relationship between his Perikatan Nasional-led government and the Palace.
Muhyiddin and Co seemed to have snubbed the King on numerous occasions in the past – evident in the Agong’s repeated calls for Parliament to reconvene.
Al-Sultan Abdullah had first spoken about it in February this year. In total, he decreed the same thing on three separate occasions. Finally, a Dewan Rakyat special sitting was held last month.
That sitting was marred when the House was told that the Emergency ordinances had been revoked despite not getting the King’s consent. The sitting ended prematurely, apparently due to a Covid-19 scare.
Things reached a boiling point when the King expressed his disappointment that the process of revoking the ordinances had not been followed through as per the Federal Constitution. In short, the Agong had wanted it to be tabled in Parliament.
But Muhyiddin seemed to have been “erroneously” advised, as his advisors had their own interpretation of the Federal Constitution.
The same process seen last year could happen again this week.
Guided by the Federal Constitution, the Agong could, once again, meet all the MPs. He would then most likely learn that no one has the majority support.
The suggestion of a “War Cabinet” had been bandied about. If this happens, this “War Cabinet”, comprising all political party leaders, should focus on three things:
- the fight against Covid-19
- care for the welfare of the rakyat; and
- prepare Malaysia for the 15th General Election.
On Feb 26, 2020, Dr Mahathir had said that if he had his way, he would want a government that does not side with any party, and which has only the nation’s interests as its priority. He must be smiling at the turn of events today.
Who’s next?
At the top of the minds of many is Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who was made deputy prime minister on July 7, just hours before Umno’s Supreme Council met to decide on their support for Muhyiddin and PN.
Despite the appointment, widely seen by many as reactive and too little, too late, Umno went ahead to declare that it no longer backed the prime minister and PN.
The fissures within Umno grew more apparent when Ismail Sabri stood by Muhyiddin when the latter addressed the nation on television the following day. Ismail Sabri, joined by his friends from MCA and MIC, continued to cosy up to Muhyiddin and PN. This did not sit well with the other Umno leaders.
When Muhyiddin addressed the nation on television last Friday, another Umno leader, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein, also stood by his side.
Hishammuddin was made senior minister on the same day Ismail Sabri was “promoted”. Observers believe the move was purely tactical on Muhyiddin’s part – to ensure allegiance from the two Umno stalwarts, and to guarantee that the prime minister had a numbers edge, slim though, it may be.
As a result, it is highly unlikely that these two individuals would receive the blessings from their own party, or any other party, to run the administration, even temporarily.
If there were a list of candidates for the prime minister’s post, their names would probably be at the bottom of that list.
If, and when Muhyiddin steps down, his PN Cabinet would cease to exist. As part of the said Cabinet, both Ismail Sabri and Hishammuddin will have to leave. They should not be seen as “beneficiaries” of this current political scrimmage by getting a promotion.
And then there’s Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. However, he too, may struggle to get the numbers.
And just like Datuk Seri Najib Razak, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, and even Dr Mahathir, Anwar remains a controversial figure who may not be able to win the hearts of all parties involved.
The Agong may not want to be placed in another prickly situation again, with horse-trading and other quarters claiming to have the numbers, two months down the road. After all, he may already have the record of possibly overseeing three (or four) prime ministers during his time in Istana Negara.
Umno could put forward Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah- a name that cannot be discounted from this race.
At 84, he has been Gua Musang MP since 1986. He once served as Finance Minister, was the only other person brave enough to go against Dr Mahathir by setting up Semangat 46, and is today, perhaps the least controversial (and possibly the most palatable candidate) among the rest of the individuals eyeing for the main title.
Better known as Ku Li, Tengku Razaleigh is not interested in the job but may step up if requested to do so. Who would, given that the country is facing a pandemic, the gloomy economic outlook, and the sheer contempt Malaysians have for politics and politicians.
Tengku Razaleigh would not be going around lobbying for support and getting statutory declarations, and could very well be the only person within Umno that may be acceptable to all parties, at least for the time being.
Similar to the National Operations Council (NOC), which was set up in 1969, the interim government could be run by just a handful of leaders. This will eliminate political drama and allow the person in charge to concentrate on the work at hand, instead of pandering to the wishes of certain groups, as how PN was run due to its wafer-thin majority.
One thing is for sure, it ain’t over till it’s over.
