To evaluate the gravity and seriousness of the Covid-19 pandemic, the authorities use the number of daily new cases as an indicator. The majority of the rakyat rely on this single figure as a basis to gauge if the situation is improving or worsening.
Unfortunately, this absolute figure is not accurate as it does not give the true picture, or reflect the reality of what’s happening on the ground. In short, it does not tell the full story.
There is a need to match the number of new cases with the number of tests conducted daily. The number of new cases will increase proportionately with the number of tests conducted each day.
The more people are tested, the higher the probability of detecting more cases, as in the case of Selangor, where free tests are now available.
A state where the case count is increasing because it’s doing more testing (like Selangor), for instance, might be making some headway in reining in the epidemic.
Nationwide, there is a wide discrepancy in the number of tests carried out each day. For instance, it was reported that 105,293 tests were performed on June 4, but the figure fell to 77,030 tests on June 8 – a difference of 28,263.
Malaysians would heave a sigh of relief on seeing the lower figure of only 5,566 new cases on June 8, (compared to 7,748 on June 4), not knowing that there was a significant drop in the number of tests done that day.
It should be noted that when the number of new infections jumped to an all-time high of 9,020 on May 29, people were right to be frightened. But if they knew that the number of tests on that day was the highest ever – at 126,480, Malaysians would still be concerned, but at least they would know the reason and could put things in better perspective.
For comparison, the average daily number of tests conducted for the week ending June 19, was only 80,251.
Another instance of the government relying on absolute numbers was when Malaysia announced it would ban the entry of citizens from countries with more than 150,000 Covid-19 cases.
In September last year, Defence Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the government would impose entry bans on countries that had recorded more than 150,000 Covid-19 cases. This included the United States (population of 331 million), Brazil (212 million), Bangladesh (164 million), Italy (60 million), Spain (47 million) and Saudi Arabia (35 million) from visiting our country.
Again, the absolute numbers used are meaningless, as the total population of the country in question was not taken into account.
The right thing to do is to use the positivity rate (and not absolute numbers); a ratio consisting of the number of tests that turn positive as the numerator, and the total number of tests performed, as the denominator. Two important indices are captured.
Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin recently said that Phase Two of the four phases of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) would be implemented, once daily cases dropped below 4,000.
He went on to say that the government would consider moving on to Phase Three of the NRP where all economic sectors could reopen – except for high-risk activities – if the country managed to lower the number of daily cases to below 2,000, and finally, to Phase Four when the number of cases fell below 500.
Relying only on the (absolute) number of the daily new Covid-19 cases to make major decisions for the country may not be a good idea — unless the figure is related to the number of tests carried out on the same day. This is where the positivity rate indicator would be more helpful and realistic.
Also, using absolute numbers could easily lead to manipulation. For instance, to help reach Phases Two, Three and Four within the prescribed period, it merely requires fewer tests to be conducted.
This is the personal opinion of the writer and does not necessarily represent the views of Twentytwo13.
