Calls by Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) for a general election to be held almost immediately, fuelled in part by the incarceration of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, could be a miscalculation.
Many are, in fact, bracing for a hung Parliament – which threatens to compound further the uncertainty and political instability in the country.
This is because no strong coalition is heading into GE15 – the first time this has happened since the country gained its independence in 1957. The Alliance party – consisting of Umno, MCA and MIC – won the 1955 general election, as a prelude to Malaya attaining nationhood. The alliance, which later became BN, had ruled the nation up until 2018, when it was booted out by Pakatan Harapan (PH).
BN was the dominant political force, and up until 2018, had been able to provide stability and prove its capability ahead of any election.
PH’s rule lasted for 22 months. Following the infamous ‘Sheraton Move’, Perikatan Nasional – led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin – controlled Putrajaya. Muhyiddin quit after 17 months in office and was replaced by Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob. Ismail Sabri is the vice-president of Umno, and his Cabinet consists of BN, Perikatan Nasional leaders, and a representative from Parti Bangsa Malaysia (Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin).
It remains to be seen who will join forces with BN ahead of GE15, especially with several Umno leaders’ misguided fixation in wanting Najib, who just started serving his 12-year jail term, to be released. For the record, the disgraced former prime minister still faces several other corruption charges against him.
BN – being just Umno, MCA, MIC, and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah – isn’t able to go into GE15 on its own because it simply doesn’t have the power to claim even a simple majority, of the 222 Parliamentary seats that will be contested.
“What we have today is a coalition of coalitions,” said Associate Professor Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk.
The director of Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Centre for Policy Research and International Studies added that the current administration was formed to ensure there was some form of continuity.
“It’s a government that was put together for the sake of convenience, but there’s just so much bickering. There’s no clear understanding between Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and Umno, while Pas is neither here nor there.
“For Malaysia, this is uncharted territory. In 2018, it was a straightforward fight between BN and PH. Today, we see so many collations … BN, Perikatan Nasional, PH, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Gerakan Tanah Air… and they are all against each other.”
However, Azeem said that in some developed nations, such as in Europe and in Israel, it is normal for alliances to only be made after an election.
“If you don’t have the numbers, you have to form some kind of understanding … the formation of such alliances (after an election) is normal,” he added.
Having said that, under the present Malaysian context, no single alliance can claim credit for the “goodies” that are expected to be delivered via Budget 2023. The budget will be tabled by Ismail Sabri on Oct 7.
All eyes will be on the budget, even as the ringgit continues to slide against the greenback, and an Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) hike, yet again, is expected to take place in November. These come amidst concerns about the rising inflation in the country.
BN, meanwhile, is still tiddly from its victories in the Melaka (November 2021) and Johor state elections (March 2022), riding on Najib’s “Bossku” phenomena.
However, many things have changed between then and now. Najib is in jail. Certain Umno leaders, including party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi – who himself is facing corruption charges – continue to defend Najib. This can be seen as a misstep as voters will be turned off by such blind support.
In fact, the man on the street now wonders if he or she too, would be accorded the same treatment Najib enjoyed in between his trials, if they were to find themselves on the wrong side of the law.
There are those within Umno who have repeatedly said that Najib is history and that the party should move on. The rift between the two factions inside Umno – “Umno party” and “Umno Cabinet” – is evident.
Umno needs to first get its house in order. It needs to address several pressing matters. Will it continue to allow its vice-president to be the prime minister? Or will there be a power shift when the party holds its elections? With Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan now eyeing a Parliament seat, is this an indication that he is gunning for the top seat in the party?
The party will also need to pacify Najib’s supporters who remain annoyed that he was jailed during Ismail Sabri’s time in office.
But Ismail Sabri is merely upholding the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary. Still, there are those who choose not to see it that way.
BN needs a reality check.
Azeem agreed that it would be difficult for the coalitions to use government machinery for the upcoming election.
“We have more parties now. So, if the people in a certain ministry are controlled by a Perikatan Nasional leader for instance, then it will be a Perikatan Nasional agenda. If the ministry is led by an Umno leader, it will adopt an Umno agenda. The same goes for a ministry with a Pas minister,” Azeem added.
There is also uncertainty among the electorate. The coming GE will see quite a number of young voters heading to the ballot boxes, following the government’s decision to lower the voting age from 21 to 18.
As Malaysia transitions to the endemic phase, and the fact that all parties, including those from the opposition, are on an almost equal footing, more voters are expected to exercise their rights.
GE15 will be an interesting bout, one that will be watched closely. It will have a special place in the history books.
As Azeem pointed out: “At the end of the day, all you need is someone who commands the majority of parliamentarians.”
“And the government should be a government for the people; not a government for the party.”
Main image: BN leaders gather during the launch of the BN Youth machinery at the Titiwangsa Stadium in Kuala Lumpur on Sept 17, 2022. Image: BN Facebook.
